Structural Analysis of the Tourist Flow and Forecasting of Anthropogenic Impacts: A Case Study of Olkhon Island (Baikal, Irkutsk Oblast)

This article presents the results of research into the flow of holidaymakers to the most popular part of Lake Baikal (Irkutsk oblast): Olkhon Island (the largest island in the lake). The Khuzhir rural municipal district receives 200 000 to 500 000 tourists and vacationers per year (the number of permanent residents is about 2000 people). To perform the assessment, a differentiated approach was used, taking into account the structure, dynamics, and territorial organization of tourism and recreational activities, as well as its confinement to the most significant objects of infrastructure and tourist interest. The data obtained during the field observations and provided by specialized organizations (Federal State Budgetary Institution Zapovednoe Pribaikal’e, the Revyakin Museum of Local History, the territorial department of the statistical office, etc.) are summarized. This article reveals the features of the annual dynamics of the tourist flow, which is characterized by seasonal fluctuations with a summer maximum in July–August and a winter maximum in February–March. Groups of tourists are identified according to the form of accommodation. The prevalence of tourists using collective accommodation facilities (CAFs) has been established, while the number of those using tents has decreased. The spatial distribution of the flow of vacationers can be characterized as monofocal: the predominant number of CAFs is located in the village of Khuzhir and its environs; automobile tourists also prefer the shore of Khuzhir Bay. Based on the analysis of the occupancy of accommodation facilities, a forecast of the demand for hospitality facilities is made. The problems caused by tourists and vacationers (whose number exceeds many times that of permanent residents under conditions of a lack of accessible environmental protection infrastructure) are identified. The formation of consumer solid municipal waste generated in the process of consumption by tourists is calculated. This article demonstrates the possibility of using this approach for a comprehensive assessment of the tourist flow, as well as the need to provide areas with adequate environmental protection infrastructure.