Assessing the Water Scarcity Trends in Amathole South Africa: Recommendations for Climate Adaptation Policies

Water is at the core of sustainable development and is critical for human survival, healthy ecosystems, and socio-economic development. South Africa is faced with unprecedented environmental changes, which can be linked to climate-related disasters such as water scarcity or drought scenarios. Several studies suggest that these changes are likely to accelerate in the future thereby causing adverse effects on the water resource availability. The Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, especially Amathole District Municipality (ADM), has recorded a high number of climate change–related phenomena including prolonged water scarcity conditions. This study assesses the water scarcity trend in Amathole District from 2017 to 2023 using selected indicators so as to suggest responsive climate adaptation policies for the region. To accomplish this, the Standardized precipitation index (SPI), Withdrawals to Availability (WTA) Ratio, Palmer Drought Severity index (PDSI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), were utilized to access the water scarcity patterns and variations. The SPI shows that February is the only observed month for extreme wetness as the water resources fluctuate throughout the whole year. The WTA identified Mnquma, Mbhashe, and the border areas of Raymond and Amahlathi Municipalities as the areas with the highest domestic water withdrawal. The PDSI indicates that areas experiencing mild drought conditions are limited to socioeconomic development. The NDVI shows the worsening water scarcity scenario with a severity peak in 2023. Based on these results, climate adaptation policy should be targeted at promoting water harvesting & conservation and capacity building for communities towards adopting sustainable agricultural practices. The results also emphasize the need to strengthen the institutional capacity of the district water governance.