Spatiotemporal Evolution and Drivers of Digital Economy–Green Finance Coupling: Evidence from Guangdong

Against the backdrop of global efforts to combat climate change and achieve the “dual carbon” goals, the coordinated development of the digital economy and green finance has become a key pathway for promoting low-carbon economic transformation. Based on panel data from 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2013 to 2022, this study employs a coupling coordination model and grey relational analysis to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of their coordination. The results show that, temporally, the coupling coordination degree demonstrates a “stepwise rise,” transitioning from slow growth to accelerated growth, and eventually to a high-level stabilization phase. Spatially, a “core polarization–peripheral catch-up” gradient pattern is observed, with the gap between the Pearl River Delta and non-Delta regions gradually narrowing, although some peripheral cities still lag at low coordination levels. In terms of driving mechanisms, factors such as the digital inclusive finance index, mobile phone users per 100 people, and green credit significantly contribute to coordination improvement, with regional heterogeneity evident: the Pearl River Delta relies more on digital infrastructure and financial innovation, while eastern, western, and northern Guangdong are primarily driven by policy intervention and green investment. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations including strengthening regional coordination, optimizing policy support, promoting financial innovation and service equalization, facilitating industrial integration, and enhancing talent training and recruitment, offering strategic insights for promoting high-quality, low-carbon regional development.