Enhancing Export Potential of Digital Service Trade in BRI Countries: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model Analysis of Digital Economy Development and Mediation Pathways

This study explores the impact of the development level of the digital economy in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the export potential of digital service trade. A stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) is employed to analyze the bilateral trade efficiency of 36 countries. The results show that digital economy development in exporting countries significantly enhances their potential in digital service exports. Furthermore, the share of service value-added in GDP and the Digital Technology Index play mediating roles in this relationship, indicating the transmission mechanisms through which digitalization boosts trade performance. Geographical distance continues to exert a negative impact on digital service trade. Additionally, this study introduces a machine learning-based forecasting framework by integrating the XGBoost algorithm with Genetic Algorithm optimization. This approach accurately predicts the trajectories of key variables, such as the Digital Economy Index and Trade Openness, enhancing the robustness of export potential estimation and providing forward-looking policy insights.The findings offer both theoretical and practical implications for enhancing digital infrastructure, improving trade facilitation, and fostering regional digital economic integration under the BRI framework.