Coupling Coordination of New Quality Productive Forces and Low-Carbon Transition: A Study based on Strategic Emerging and Future Industries

Theoretical alignment exists between new quality productivity (NQP) and low-carbon transition (LCT), but their practical coordination is conditional and conflictual. Analysis of China's 2012-2022 provincial data shows the NQP-LCT coupling coordination degree has continuously improved overall, yet exhibits a distinct "east-high, west-low" spatial pattern where regional disparities dominate. It demonstrates positive spatial autocorrelation, with high-high clusters concentrated in the east and low-low clusters in the west and northeast, alongside multipolar/bipolar kernel density trends. Consequently, strict carbon policies should be enforced, NQP's tech leveraged to empower traditional industry decarbonization, and regional complementarity fostered to deepen NQP-LCT synergy.