Analysis of Factors Affecting Energy-Economy Relations and Construction of an Indicator System: A Case Study of Five Northwestern Provinces in China

This study develops an evaluation index system for the low-carbon economy and examines the main drivers of carbon emissions in five northwestern provinces (2016-2020) using the GDIM model based on the Kaya identity. The results show that the model is effective, but the region's overall low-carbon economy score has declined, mainly due to regional disparities, with temporal changes having a lesser impact. The GDP's contribution to carbon emissions has increased, while the population's contribution remains stable, and total energy consumption's contribution has decreased. Notably, energy economic intensity and population carbon intensity have increased, while energy carbon intensity, per capita GDP, and economic development carbon intensity have decreased annually. The study suggests policies to promote green energy, industrial transformation, and balanced development of energy and economy.