A Sustainable Development Planning Model for Managing

This study addresses the overtourism problem by developing a Sustainable Development Planning (STD) model to optimise the sustainability of tourism. The model balances economic benefits with environmental and social sustainability through a multi-objective optimisation strategy. Pearson correlation analyses are used to identify the key factors affecting total sustainable tourism revenue, environmental pressure and infrastructure pressure. Regression models are constructed for each factor, including constraints on tourist numbers, environmental capacity and infrastructure limitations. Genetic algorithms are utilized to determine the optimal number of tourists and target values to provide theoretical support for tourism regulation and tax allocation. The stability of the model is determined through prediction error analysis and sensitivity analysis. To assess its applicability, the model is tested in two diffuse flow areas, Juneau and Barcelona. The results demonstrate that the model is effective in determining the optimal number of tourists, tourism revenue, amount of tax revenue and target values. This highlights the potential of the model as a tool to guide sustainable tourism development. The study provides a practical framework for sustainable planning and a template for other regions dealing with similar issues.