Analysis of the evolutionary game of new energy commercial vehicle market promotion under the background of ‘Dual Carbon'

New energy commercial vehicles (NECVs) are a key emission - reduction strategy in road transportation. In NECV promotion, the government, manufacturers, and users have distinct strategies and interests. A dynamic evolutionary game model is constructed to explore their strategic interplay. It analyzes strategic choices, stability, and influencing factors. Matlab simulations analyze variables affecting evolutionary paths. The findings indicate that enhancing users' initial willingness to participate most significantly promotes the evolution towards an ideal state characterized by strong incentives, production of NECVs, and their acquisition. Reducing the costs of technological innovation markedly increases the manufacturers' willingness to produce NECVs. Non-subsidy policies also show a notable incentive effect on increasing the market penetration of NECVs.