Analysis of the impact of the delayed retirement policy on the expenditures of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers

The article is based on population data from the Seventh National Population Census and pension insurance-related data from the past 20 years. It constructs an impact model for the expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers through multiple regression, studying the influencing factors and mechanisms of the fund's expenditure. The research shows that the expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers is influenced by gross national income, the income of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers, and the labor force participation rate from economic, policy, and demographic perspectives, respectively. Further comparison of the ARIMA model's predictions of pension insurance fund expenditure before and after the implementation of the delayed retirement policy reveals that the policy significantly reduces the expenditure of the pension insurance fund and enhances the financial sustainability of the fund. Mechanism analysis indicates that the delayed retirement policy effectively alleviates the expenditure pressure on the pension insurance fund by extending working years, increasing the contribution period to the pension, and postponing the time of pension receipt. Moreover, as the policy is further implemented, its inhibitory effect on fund expenditure will become more pronounced.