Import Dependency in India’s Cocoa Sector: Patterns, Partners, and Post-pandemic Projections (2014–2023)

Abstract: This research explores India's dependency on cocoa bean imports over a ten-year period (2014–2023), focusing on trade volumes, country-wise sourcing patterns, and forecasting future trends up to 2028. With domestic production unable to meet growing demand in the chocolate and confectionery industry, India relies heavily on imports from countries such as Ghana, Uganda, Madagascar, Congo, and the Dominican Republic. Using secondary data, this study applies growth rate analysis, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), and forecasting techniques to understand import dynamics and predict future trends. The findings suggest that while pandemic disruptions impacted trade, there is a robust recovery with increasing import volumes expected. Strategic policy recommendations are provided to manage dependency and enhance domestic cocoa production.