Near-Histories and Strategy Emergence: A Microhistorical Perspective

Even when anticipated strategic decisions or actions do not materialize, they can still set in motion emergent dynamics with collateral consequences that lead to profound strategic consequences. Adopting a microhistorical lens, we elucidate the dynamics of these processes by focusing on two largely dismissed near-history episodes in the relatively recent history of the Nokia Corporation. We develop a process model that elaborates on how anticipatory reactions, mobilization of networks, revision of expectations, and the emergence of a new strategic direction can eventually have significant strategic consequences. By focusing on this poorly understood but important form of strategy emergence, we contribute to a fuller understanding of strategy emergence and the role of strategic agency therein. Furthermore, we extend the conversation on near-histories from focusing on what could have happened to examining their concrete consequences. Our findings show that near-history episodes are not merely precursors or impediments to actualized events but productive forces shaping organizational trajectories in ways that realized events alone cannot explain. In so doing, our microhistorical analysis has major methodological implications for historically oriented strategy research and for our understanding of causal complexity in strategy emergence.