Perbandingan Metode GWR, MGWR, dan MGWR-SAR pada Data Persentase Penduduk Miskin di Pulau Jawa

The primary goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty everywhere in all its forms. Poverty is defined as the inability to meet basic needs, such as food, clothing, shelter, education, and healthcare. In Indonesia, the poor population has reached 26.36 million people, with half of them residing on Java Island. Extensive research has been conducted on poverty, particularly using a spatial approach. Spatial regression is a statistical method that explicitly incorporates geographical aspects into a model framework. In spatial regression, two main challenges arise: spatial dependence and heterogeneity. These two effects are inherently interconnected and must be considered simultaneously. Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression with Spatial Autoregressive (MGWR-SAR) is a combination of Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) and Spatial Autoregressive (SAR). MGWR-SAR effectively addresses both spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity simultaneously. This study aims to determine the best method for modeling the percentage of poor population on Java. The variables used included PPM, BPJSPBI, PPKM, PLSMP, PPTB, BPNT, NCPR, and IPM. The kernel function was selected based on the smallest cross-validation (CV) value, which was a Fixed Gaussian with a CV of 603.8268. Based on the GWR model, the global variables identified were PPTB, BPNT, and IPM, whereas the remaining variables were local. The MGWR-SAR method was found to be the best model for predicting the percentage of poor population, with an AIC = 448.9645, RMSE = 1.9075, and = 75.23%.