Enhancing China's agri-food security: Palms as alternative oil crops under U.S.-China trade war

The 2025 U.S.-China Trade War has intensified the vulnerability of China’s oil supply chain due to heavy reliance on soybean imports, posing serious challenges to food security. This study examines soybean dependency risks and evaluates substitution strategies through diversified oilseed use, including palm-based alternatives. Findings show that high reciprocal tariffs caused a 75% drop in U.S. soybean exports to China. Palm oil, with high yield efficiency and cost-effectiveness, offers a viable supplement to fill supply chain gaps. Promoting oil palm cultivation through northward expansion and cooperation with Belt and Road countries is recommended. Additionally, multi-omics, gene editing, tissue culture, and precision agriculture are crucial to address technical bottlenecks. The study concludes that palm and soybean oils will form a complementary system, and that policy and technology investments are essential to strengthen China’s oilseed supply chain resilience and sustainability.