The use of monitoring data from north-west Europe as indicators for the health of Arctic-breeding waterbird populations

Summary Knowledge of the status of ecosystems is vital to help develop and implement conservation strategies. This is particularly relevant to the Arctic where the need for biodiversity conservation and monitoring has long been recognised, but where issues of local capacity and logistic barriers make surveys challenging. This paper demonstrates how long-term monitoring programmes outside the Arctic can contribute to developing composite trend indicators, using monitoring of annual abundance and population-level reproduction of species of migratory Arctic-breeding waterbirds on their temperate non-breeding areas. Using data from the UK and the Netherlands, countries with year-round waterbird monitoring schemes and supporting relevant shares of Arctic-breeding populations of waterbirds, we present example multi-species abundance and productivity indicators related to the migratory pathways used by different biogeographical populations of Arctic-breeding wildfowl and wader species in the East Atlantic Flyway. These composite trend indicators show that long-term increases in population size have slowed markedly in recent years and in several cases show declines over, at least, the last decade. These results constitute proof of concept. Some other non-Arctic countries located on the flyways of Arctic-breeding waterbirds also annually monitor abundance and breeding success, and we advocate that future development of “Arctic waterbird indicators” should be as inclusive of data as possible to derive the most robust outputs and help account for effects of current changes in non-breeding waterbird distributions. The incorporation of non-Arctic datasets into assessments of the status of Arctic biodiversity is recognised as highly desirable, because logistic constraints in monitoring within the Arctic region limit effective population-scale monitoring there, in effect enabling “monitoring at a distance”.