A Study of Multiplier Effects by Residential Movement Due to New Housing Supply in Pohang: Focusing on the Vacancy Chain and Changes in Housing Quality

This study aimed to assess changes in housing quality and estimate the average vacancy chain length resulting from residential mobility triggered by newly constructed apartment units in Pohang.The findings indicate that, when comparing previous and current residences, 64.9% of households experienced a significant or moderate improvement in physical housing conditions, 29.7% reported no notable change, and 5.4% experienced deterioration.Additionally, the median housing price increased significantly from KRW 176.9 million to KRW 323.3 million, indicating a substantial improvement in overall housing quality.To further analyze this change, housing prices were categorized into high, medium, and low tiers before and after the move.A cross-tabulation was conducted to compare the price categories of previous and current residences.Based on this data, a Markov Chain Model was applied to calculate the average vacancy chain lengths generated by the new housing supply.The resulting chain lengths were 4.94 for high-priced units, 4.75 for medium-priced units, and 3.58 for low-priced units.These findings suggest that the development of new apartment complexes generates relatively long vacancy chains across all price segments, with higher-priced units facilitating greater residential mobility.This suggests that newly built high-end housing can indirectly benefit a broader range of households by enabling multiple sequential moves.This phenomenon aligns with the concept of the housing filtering effect in the local housing market.