Evolutionary Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Coupled Coordination of Digital Economy, New Urbanization, and Low-Carbon Development in China

The digital economy (DE) serves as a key driver for the low-carbon transformation (LCD) of new urbanization (NU), and promoting their coordinated development helps address the dual challenges of urbanization and low-carbon transition in China. To address the lack of analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of DE, NU, and LCD in existing studies, this research examines 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2021. The entropy weight method and a comprehensive index model are used to measure the integrated levels of DE, NU, and LCD, while the CCD model, kernel density estimation, GM(1,1), Moran index, and Markov chain are employed to analyze the dynamic characteristics of CCD from the dimensions of temporal evolution, spatial evolution, and spatiotemporal evolution rules. The findings reveal that (1) DE and NU in China exhibit steady growth, while LCD shows some fluctuations; (2) temporally, CCD levels improve annually, with all provinces expected to achieve coordinated development by 2026; (3) spatially, CCD follows an increasing pattern of central–northeast-west-east, characterized by high–high clusters in the eastern region and low–low clusters in the western region, with increasing spatial correlation; and (4) spatiotemporally, CCD exhibits path dependence, with low-coupling provinces adjacent to medium–high-coupling provinces more likely to progress to higher coupling levels. This study not only reveals the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of CCD but also proposes practical recommendations to enhance coordinated development, reduce regional disparities, and break development barriers, providing theoretical support and policy insights for the collaborative pathway of DE, NU, and LCD under the impetus of the digital economy.