Settling or Returning: What Drives Rural Migrant Workers’ Urban Settlement Decisions?

This study investigates the factors shaping settlement intentions among rural migrant workers in China, with a focus on the multidimensional impacts of human, social, and psychological capital. Using data from a large-scale survey of 4864 rural migrant workers, we apply a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze the likelihood of settling in urban areas versus returning to rural hometowns. Our analysis introduces an innovative framework by incorporating psychological capital—often overlooked in migration studies—alongside human and social capital. The results indicate that occupational training and physical health, as key elements of human capital, significantly increase the likelihood of urban settlement. Meanwhile, strong familial ties within social capital push workers towards returning home. Interestingly, psychological capital, particularly traits like optimism and self-efficacy, shows a reverse effect, increasing the likelihood of rural return. We conduct robustness checks by substituting alternative measures for social capital and controlling for age, reinforcing the model’s stability. This study expands migration theory by demonstrating the nuanced roles of non-economic factors in migration intentions, offering insights for policymakers on supporting migrant workers’ settlement preferences.