Robust Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Spot Gold Return in Türkiye

The aim of this study is to investigate the robust drivers of gold return in Türkiye by using the extreme bounds analysis (EBA). According to findings, economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate, money supply and inflation are found four variables that are highly robust based on both Leamer and Sala-i-Martin models. In addition, house price is robust determinants of gold price as reported by Sala-i-Martin approach. From these results, it emerges that factors mentioned above are robust determinants of gold prices in Türkiye. The results of the study are also clear that spot gold return is driven by local variable more than global factors. This local factors are mostly related to the stance of monetary policy and the outcomes of monetary policy.