Efektywność sankcji gospodarczych wobec Rosji po 2014 i 2022 roku oraz rosyjskie alternatywy w omijaniu sankcji gospodarczych: przypadek Chin, Indii oraz Białorusi

The imposition of unprecedented technological sanctions on the Russian Federation following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in the use of economic instruments as tools of international pressure. This study examines the long-term structural consequences of these sanctions on Russia’s technological development and economic transformation. While shortterm effects—such as inflation, ruble depreciation, and the withdrawal of Western companies—were quickly evident, the paper focuses on the more complex, systemic implications for Russia’s high-tech sectors and innovation potential. The research analyzes key indicators such as R&D investment levels, patent activity, high-tech exports, and the ability to substitute critical imports. It explores the limitations of Russia’s domestic innovation capacity, the effectiveness of import substitution programs, and the growing technological dependence on China. Findings suggest that Russia faces deepening technological stagnation, institutional inertia, and a weakening capacity for structural modernization. The study concludes that without access to advanced technologies and global innovation networks, Russia risks long-term marginalization in the global economy, reinforcing its reliance on low-tech, resource-based industries. The analysis is based on desk research using data from international institutions, think tanks, and scientific literature. It contributes to the broader debate on sanctions as tools of systemic disruption and offers insight into the strategic role of technology in shaping global power dynamics in the 21st century.