FINANCIAL SECURITY UNDER ECONOMIC PRESSURE: OLS AND ARMAX ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION IN HEALTHCARE SECTORE

Purpose:The objective of this article is to comprehensively assess the financial security of the Polish healthcare sector over 15 years, taking into account both internal measures of financial efficiency and the impact of macroeconomic conditions.Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses a synthetic indicator of financial security (HealtFinSec), constructed using the TOPSIS method and the OLS and ARMAX econometric models.Particular emphasis is placed on examining the role of macroeconomic stabilisation (MSP) as a factor determining the financial security of the sector.Findings: The results of the study indicate that the long-term financial stability of the health sector depends not only on internal management, but also on the overall macroeconomic situation of the country.This means that health care financing planning should be integrated with the state's economic policy.The practical consequence is the need to build buffer mechanisms, e.g.stabilisation funds -that will increase the resilience of the system in periods of recession.Research limitations/implications: The availability of data, the choice of normalisation method and the choice of research sample.Practical implications: For decision makers, this means the need for long-term planning and strengthening of tools to monitor the condition of the sector in a dynamic approach.These conclusions may also be helpful for medical facilities, indicating the importance of liquidity management, operational efficiency, and debt reduction.For international institutions and regulators, the article provides arguments for a better linking of health policy with the goals of sustainable development and economic stability.Social implications: The social implications of the article relate to the health security of citizens, the role of economic policy in shaping quality of life, and the need for systemic changes in the financing of the health care sector in Poland.The results provide a strong argument for long-term coordinated public policy that integrates health and economic goals.Originality/value: The novelty of the article is the multidimensional, quantitative, and dynamic approach to the financial security of the health sector and its innovative link to macroeconomic stability -using advanced analytical methods (TOPSIS, ARMAX) and a long-term time perspective.This article makes an original contribution to research on the economics of the health care sector, indicating the need for a systematic approach to assess its financial stability, in connection with macroeconomic conditions and long-term financing and management strategies.