Box office determinants: a content analysis of critics’ reviews

This work identifies the factors associated with the value of box office of films released in Russian distribution in the period from 2014 to 2018. The authors use regression analysis and the method of principal components and show that a 1% increase in the number of audience reviews increases the box office of a movie at the Russian box office by 0.4%, while a 1% increase in the potential audience reach of a movie trailer increases the box office by 0.3%. The box office value is related to the content of movie critics' reviews. The number of reviews that are subtle praise (‘extraordinary’, ‘magnificent’, ‘masterpiece’, ‘remarkable’, etc.) is on average negatively related to box office, while the number of reviews that include words characterizing tense atmosphere (‘haunted’, ‘scares’, ‘creepy’, ‘monster’, etc.) or scenes involving violence and danger to life (‘gun’, ‘violent’, ‘brutal’, ‘terrifying’) are positively related. For biographical films, critics' use of words from the ‘praise’ vocabulary is positively related to box office, while words from the ‘suspense’ vocabulary are negatively related to box office. The number of reviews containing critics' description of violent scenes is negatively related to the box office of thriller or action films. The number of reviews containing words from thematic dictionaries (‘feelings and emotions’, ‘money’, ‘kingdom’, ‘military themes’, ‘romance’) are related to the box office receipts of films, with the nature of the connection depending on the genre. Thus, critics' use of words from the vocabulary ‘money’ is positively related to the box office value on average, but negatively for animated films.