The Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in Russia, 1987–2023: Subtypes, Transmission Networks and Phylogenetic Story

Regional HIV-1 epidemics are evolving with distinct patterns in transmission routes, subtype distribution, and molecular transmission cluster (MTCs) characteristics. We analyzed 9500 HIV-1 cases diagnosed over 30 years using phylogenetic and network methods, integrating molecular, epidemiological, demographic, and behavioral data. Subtype A6 remains dominant nationally (80.6%), followed by 63_02A6 (7.9%), subtype B (5.6%), 02_AG<sub>FSU</sub> (1.2%), 03_A6B (0.7%), and 14/73_BG (0.6%). Non-A6 infections were more common among males (OR 1.51) and men who have sex with men (OR 7.33). Network analysis identified 421 MTCs, with 256 active clusters. Clustering was more likely among young individuals (OR: 1.31), those not receiving antiretroviral therapy (OR: 2.70), and injecting drug users (OR: 1.28). Non-A6 subtypes showed a higher likelihood of clustering. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that local clusters of the major subtypes originated between the late 1970s (subtype B) and the mid-2000s (63_02A6) with links to populations in Eastern Europe, Central Asia (subtypes A6, 63_02A6, 02_AG<sub>FSU</sub>, 03_A6B), and Western Europe and the Americas (subtype B, 14/73_BG). These findings indicate a complex, evolving regional epidemic transitioning from subtype A6 dominance to a more diverse mix of subtypes. The ability of non-A6 subtypes to form active MTCs suggests their establishment in the local population.

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Journal
Pathogens
Published
2025-07-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens14080738
Citations
4
Primary Topic
HIV Research and Treatment
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.15
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article

The Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in Russia, 1987–2023: Subtypes, Transmission Networks and Phylogenetic Story

А. И. Ермаков, Ilya Lapovok, Е. А. Базыкина, Galina Turbina et al.
4 citations
Pathogens
HIV Research and Treatment
4.15
article

The Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in Russia, 1987–2023: Subtypes, Transmission Networks and Phylogenetic Story

А. И. Ермаков, Ilya Lapovok, Е. А. Базыкина, Galina Turbina, Dmitry Kireev, Ekaterina Ozhmegova, В. О. Котова, Andrey Shemshura, O.Yu. Peksheva, M. V. Piterskiy, А. В. Семенов, Anastasiia Antonova, Alina Kirichenko, Aleksandr Suladze, V. V. Kulagin, S. V. Shtrek, Anastasia V. Shlykova, N. E. Monakhov, В. Г. Акимкин, Alexey Lopatukhin, Vyacheslav Bobkov, Natalia Filoniuk, A. Yu. Kovelenov, Bobkova Mr, Aleksej Sannikov, Aleksey Lebedev, Dmitry Kolpakov, Natalia Zaytseva, Alexandra Cherdantseva
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Regional HIV-1 epidemics are evolving with distinct patterns in transmission routes, subtype distribution, and molecular transmission cluster (MTCs) characteristics. We analyzed 9500 HIV-1 cases diagnosed over 30 years using phylogenetic and network methods, integrating molecular, epidemiological, demographic, and behavioral data. Subtype A6 remains dominant nationally (80.6%), followed by 63_02A6 (7.9%), subtype B (5.6%), 02_AG<sub>FSU</sub> (1.2%), 03_A6B (0.7%), and 14/73_BG (0.6%). Non-A6 infections were more common among males (OR 1.51) and men who have sex with men (OR 7.33). Network analysis identified 421 MTCs, with 256 active clusters. Clustering was more likely among young individuals (OR: 1.31), those not receiving antiretroviral therapy (OR: 2.70), and injecting drug users (OR: 1.28). Non-A6 subtypes showed a higher likelihood of clustering. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that local clusters of the major subtypes originated between the late 1970s (subtype B) and the mid-2000s (63_02A6) with links to populations in Eastern Europe, Central Asia (subtypes A6, 63_02A6, 02_AG<sub>FSU</sub>, 03_A6B), and Western Europe and the Americas (subtype B, 14/73_BG). These findings indicate a complex, evolving regional epidemic transitioning from subtype A6 dominance to a more diverse mix of subtypes. The ability of non-A6 subtypes to form active MTCs suggests their establishment in the local population.

PathogensVol. 14(8)
Kuban State Medical University (RU), Omsk State Medical University (RU), Lipetsk State Technical University (RU), Nizhniy Novgorod Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after Academician I.N. Blokhina (RU), Omsk Research Institute of Natural Focal Infections (RU), Gamalei Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology (RU), Central Research Institute of Epidemiology (RU), Centre for Prevention and Control of AIDS and Infectious Diseases (RU), Khabarovsk Scientific Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology (RU), Regional Center for Prevention and Control of AIDS and Infectious Diseases (RU), Research Institute of Vaccines and Sera. Mechnikov of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences (RU), Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (RU), Lipetsk State Pedagogical University (RU), Rostov Research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology (RU), Ekaterinburg Research Institute of Viral Infections (RU)
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
HIV Research and Treatment
4.15
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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