Intensification Trend and Mechanisms of Oman Upwelling During 1993–2018

The long-term trend of coastal upwelling under global warming has been a research focus in recent years. Based on datasets including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface wind, air–sea heat fluxes, ocean currents, and sea level pressure, this study explores the long-term trend and underlying mechanisms of the Oman coastal upwelling intensity in summer during 1993–2018. The results indicate a persistent decrease in SST within the Oman upwelling region during this period, suggesting an intensification trend of Oman upwelling. This trend is primarily driven by the strengthened positive wind stress curl (WSC), while the enhanced net shortwave radiation flux at the sea surface partially suppresses the SST cooling induced by the strengthened positive WSC, and the effect of horizontal oceanic heat transport is weak. Further analysis revealed that the increasing trend in the positive WSC results from the nonuniform responses of sea level pressure and the associated surface winds to global warming. There is an increasing trend in sea level pressure over the western Arabian Sea, coupled with decreasing atmospheric pressure over the Arabian Peninsula and the Somali Peninsula. This enhances the atmospheric pressure gradient between land and sea, and consequently strengthens the alongshore winds off the Oman coast. However, in the coastal region, wind changes are less pronounced, resulting in an insignificant trend in the alongshore component of surface wind. Consequently, it results in the increasing positive WSC over the Oman upwelling region, and sustains the intensification trend of Oman coastal upwelling.