Timber Industrial Policies and Export Competitiveness: Evidence from China’s Wood-Processing Sector in the Context of Sustainable Development

In the era of climate change, the strategic importance of forestry products for sustainable development is increasingly recognized. Amid a global resurgence of industrial policy aimed at addressing environmental challenges, this study investigates the impact of China’s central and provincial green industrial policies on the export competitiveness of wood-processing enterprises. Utilizing firm-level data from the China Industrial Enterprise Database and China Customs Export Database (2000–2013), we apply a double machine learning (DML) approach and construct a heterogeneous competitiveness model to evaluate policy effects along two dimensions: export quantity (volume and intensity) and export quality (product complexity and consumer-perceived quality). Our findings reveal a clear dichotomy in policy outcomes. While industrial policies have significantly improved export product complexity—reflecting China’s comparative advantage in labor-intensive production—they have had limited or even negative effects on export volume, intensity, and product quality. This suggests that current policy frameworks disproportionately reward horizontal innovation (product diversification) while neglecting vertical upgrading (quality enhancement), thereby hindering comprehensive export performance gains. Those results highlight the need for more balanced and targeted policy design. By aligning industrial policy instruments with both complexity and quality objectives, policymakers can better support the sustainable transformation of China’s forestry sector and enhance its competitiveness in global value chains.