The Impact of Supply and Demand Shocks on Chinese Wood Market

China’s timber market is very complex and heterogeneous, and is experiencing the impact of the construction of national reserve forests and the downturn in the real estate sector. By setting up a partial equilibrium model which reflects the heterogeneity of China’s wood market, not only difference among domestic timber groups can be identified, but the dissimilarity of imported timber can also be differentiated from the aspects of species and sources. This model is capable of capturing the effects of macroeconomic conditions, forestry sector policies, and trade cost variations on China’s timber market structure. According to simulations of supply shocks, China’s large-diameter log capacity enhancement will have a noticeable crowding-out effect on imported timber, suggesting the diameter of logs is an important factor for market entities to make trade-offs between domestic and imported timber. Amidst both supply and demand shocks, the equilibrium quantity changes in China’s domestic small-diameter logs and imported timber are dominated by demand shocks, whereas the equilibrium quantity change in China’s domestic large-diameter logs is dominated by supply shocks; moreover, only domestic large-diameter logs realize quantity increase in double shocks; this improves China’s domestic timber supply structure, and is a good example of “opportunities in crisis” in the face of negative demand shocks.