Spatiotemporal Variation in NDVI in the Sunkoshi River Watershed During 2000–2021 and Its Response to Climate Factors and Soil Moisture

Given that the Sunkoshi River watershed (located in the southern foot of the Himalayas) is sensitive to climate change and its mountain ecosystem provides important services, we aim to evaluate its spatial and temporal variation patterns of vegetation, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), during 2000–2021 and identify the dominant driving factors of vegetation change. Based on the NDVI dataset (MOD13A1), we used the simple linear trend model, seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method, and Mann–Kendall test to investigate the spatiotemporal variation features of NDVI during 2000–2021 on multiple scales (annual, seasonal, monthly). We used the partial correlation coefficient (PCC) to quantify the response of the NDVI to land surface temperature (LST), precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture. The results indicate that the annual NDVI in 52.6% of the study area (with elevation of 1–3 km) increased significantly, while 0.9% of the study area (due to urbanization) degraded significantly during 2000–2021. Daytime LST dominates NDVI changes on spring, summer, and winter scales, while precipitation, soil moisture, and nighttime LST are the primary impact factors on annual NDVI changes. After removing the influence of soil moisture, the contributions of climate factors to NDVI change are enhanced. Precipitation shows a 3-month lag effect and a 5-month cumulative effect on the NDVI; both daytime LST and soil moisture have a 4-month lag effect on the NDVI; and humidity exhibits a 2-month cumulative effect on the NDVI. Overall, the study area turned green during 2000–2021. The dominant driving factors of NDVI change may vary on different time scales. The findings will be beneficial for climate change impact assessment on the regional eco-environment, and for integrated watershed management.