Unraveling the paradox of child growth in Tanzania’s breadbasket regions: impact of household food production

Tanzania’s food supply relies heavily on crop production from its breadbasket regions (BBRs). Despite their central role in national agriculture, the 2018 National Nutrition Survey revealed a troubling paradox: five of the regions with the highest rates of child stunting and severe malnutrition are located within these BBRs. This paper investigates the underlying causes of this paradox. Using data from the 2017–2018 National Household Budget Survey, the 2020–2021 National Integrated Labor Force Survey, and the 2020–2021 National Panel Survey, instrumental variable probit models were used to assess the impact of household crop production on children’s growth status. The findings confirm that children in BBRs are more likely to experience stunting than those in non-BBRs. Overall, higher crop production is associated with a lower risk of stunting and improved height-for-age z-scores. However, these benefits appear more pronounced in non-BBRs than in BBRs. Further analysis shows a positive relationship between increased crop production and household dietary diversity, although this relationship is also weaker in BBRs. These results indicate that factors beyond food availability, such as dietary practices and household-level conditions, may contribute to the observed paradox, highlighting the need for more nuanced policy discussions.