Towards a low-carbon economy: How can green technological innovation affect carbon productivity in China?

Green technological innovation (GTI) has emerged as a central mechanism for advancing energy efficiency, mitigating carbon emissions, and facilitating the broader shift toward sustainable economic development in China. Utilizing panel data encompassing 269 prefecture-level Chinese cities from 2008 to 2021, we systematically investigate how GTI affects carbon productivity. Our findings reveal that GTI contributes positively to local carbon productivity while simultaneously exerting a positive influence on adjacent regions. This spatial diffusion, however, is subject to decay over geographic distance. Further analysis highlights pronounced heterogeneity in GTI's impact, shaped by variations in resource endowment and urban scale. The positive impact of GTI is particularly remarkable in cities that are not reliant on natural resources and in those classified as medium to large. In addition, structural optimization and factor allocation are effective pathways through which GTI drives improvements in carbon productivity. Finally, the low-carbon transition effect of GTI exhibits significant spatial threshold characteristics with respect to marketization. Only when marketization reaches a certain level can GTI effectively boost carbon productivity both locally and in neighboring regions. These results offer critical implications for formulating policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality and fostering sustainable urban development in China.