What Does the Future Hold for Human Rights in Conflict-Affected Areas? A Delphi Study on MNEs’ Strategies

Abstract With increasing legislation mandating human rights due diligence (HRDD) practices, corporate respect for human rights has gained more prominence. Conflict-affected areas pose significant risks for multinational enterprises (MNEs) to become complicit in human rights violations. However, the connection between business activities in conflict-affected areas and adverse human rights impacts is often overlooked. Therefore, this future-oriented study analyzes how MNEs will implement HRDD practices in such challenging contexts over the next decade. Thereby, we outline how Business for Peace research can inform the development of conflict-sensitive HRDD practices. In a Delphi study, 82 experts from business, civil society, and academia discussed future scenarios on conflict-sensitive HRDD practices by assessing their feasibility for MNEs and their positive impact on rightsholders. Based on this assessment, the analysis reveals four corporate strategies for addressing human rights in such areas. The findings indicate that the decision between exiting conflict-affected areas or staying and implementing “enhanced engagement” strategies presents a business case dilemma to MNEs which has significant ethical implications for rightsholders impacted by this decision. This study contributes to the literature on Business and Human Rights by adding a conflict perspective to the discourse and addressing compliance challenges with existing and prospective HRDD laws.