Technological spillovers from imported intermediate goods on heterogeneous innovation

Against the backdrop of the profound adjustment of the global value chain, how technological spillovers from imported intermediate goods affect the heterogeneous innovation paths of firms is a core issue for developing countries. Based on the panel data covering 278 prefecture-level cities in China, this paper constructs micro-trade and spatial Durbin models to empirically examine the differential impacts of technological spillovers from imported intermediate goods on high- and low-technology innovation and their spatial effects. This study finds that (1) technological spillovers from imported intermediate goods significantly increase the high-technology innovation level of local firms, generating a 'technological dividend'. However, they have no significant effect on low-technology innovation, potentially triggering a 'low-end lock-in' effect. (2) Technological spillovers reduce innovation costs by enhancing regional absorptive capacity, where the import of semifinished products directly drives high-technology breakthroughs through product innovation, while the import of components indirectly optimizes innovation efficiency through process innovation. (3) The spatial spillover effect of high-technology innovation is significant, forming innovation clusters centred on the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas, while the regional collaborative effect of low-technology innovation is relatively weak. This research provides a theoretical basis for developing countries to balance import expansion and independent innovation. It suggests strengthening regional absorptive capacity and innovation ecosystem construction to avoid the risk of low-end lock-in and to achieve global value chain upgrading.