The impact of natural gas development on the resilience of coastal social-ecological systems amid climate change in Mtwara, Tanzania

This study examines the effects of natural gas development on the sociological systems of coastal communities in the Mtwara region, Tanzania, with a focus on Livelihoods, resilience to climate change, and sustainability. Coastal communities, heavily reliant on marine and coastal resources, face challenges from climate change, environmental degradation, and socioeconomic inequalities. Natural gas investments have introduced opportunities for poverty alleviation, income generation, and infrastructure improvement. However, these developments also present risks such as uneven benefit distribution, environmental degradation, and over-reliance on extractive revenues. The study employs a resilience framework to investigate the impact of natural gas development on community welfare and adaptive capacity. It employed a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, which simultaneously enabled the collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data. The mixed-methods approach integrated qualitative techniques (key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and transect walks) with quantitative data collection through a household questionnaire survey. The data were analysed using MS Excel and SPSS to obtain descriptive and inferential statistics for quantitative analysis. The study analysed qualitative data thematically to identify key patterns, relationships, and factors related to governance, resilience, and climate change. Findings reveal positive impacts, including job creation, reduced energy costs, and improved electricity access, alongside challenges like income disparities and resistance to implementation. Communities adopt response strategies such as alternative income-generating activities and environmental conservation to mitigate these challenges. The study emphasises the importance of implementing inclusive policies, capacity-building initiatives, and sustainable practices that strike a balance between economic benefits and environmental and social considerations. Continuous monitoring and stakeholder collaboration are crucial for addressing emerging challenges and ensuring equitable distribution of benefits. The study concludes that sustainable natural gas development can enhance the welfare and resilience of coastal communities, provided it integrates environmental conservation, community empowerment, and adaptive management strategies. Thus, it recommends policymakers and stakeholders to prioritise long-term sustainability over short-term gains that can harness the potential of natural gas investments to support resilient sociological systems in the face of climate change.