Less alarming than assumed: New insights on diversion effects in German secondary education

Reforms have aimed to make the German educational system more permeable. Today, obtaining the highest level of secondary education is possible regardless of the track to which a student has transferred. However promising, research has indicated that these hopes of easier upward mobility have only been partially fulfilled, as many students who began their educational journeys on a non-academic track displayed diversion effects—that is, a loss of initially high aspirations. Panel data allows for testing whether educational outcomes are influenced by the choice of school track among highly motivated students. Our results show that competencies and satisfaction are not affected once self-selection into tracks is accounted for. Regarding the attainment of the final degree, the difference between the academic track (Gymnasium) and the non-academic tracks amounts to approximately 13 percentage points. These findings suggest that diversion effects are smaller than previously reported. Policymakers, in particular, should be aware of these differences. • Diversion is the loss of initially high aspirations in non-academic school tracks. • Selecting a sample of initially highly motivated students; ten-year follow up. • Matching to account for self-selection into tracks; estimate causal effect of track. • Academic achievement and satisfaction develop similarly by track • Probability to obtain highest qualification 13 p.p. higher in the academic track.