Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms

• Armed conflicts hindered the progress towards achieving the SDGs by 3.43 %. • The Middle East was the most severely affected region, with a 6.10 % delay in SDGs progress. • SDGs 4 and 9 were mainly affected by intrastate conflicts, while SDGs 5 and 7 by interstate conflicts. • SDG 15 was impacted by both intrastate and interstate conflicts, with effects lasting years. • As conflicts rose, sustainable development progress regressed rapidly and non-linearly. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a solemn commitment by United Nations member states, but achieving them faces numerous challenges, particularly armed conflicts. Here, we analyzed the impact of armed conflict on SDG progress and its driving mechanism through causal inference methods and machine learning technique. The results show that between 2000 and 2021, armed conflicts slowed overall SDG progress by 3.43 %, equivalent to a setback of 18 years. The Middle East was the most affected region, with a 6.10 % slowdown in progress. The impact of different types of conflict varies across specific goals: interstate conflicts primarily affect SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), while intrastate conflicts have a larger impact on SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure). Additionally, SDG 15 (Life on Land) is severely affected by both types of conflict, with long-term consequences. As armed conflicts increase, the development progress would regress rapidly in a non-linear manner. To achieve the SDGs by 2030, it is crucial not only to prevent conflicts but also to proactively address and mitigate their impacts on development.