Research Progress on Time Series Prediction of Agricultural Disaster Risk: A Mini-review

Food security is crucial for human survival and national economic development, but frequent meteorological disasters have caused great harm to agricultural production. Therefore, it is very important and meaningful to study how to quickly and accurately predict the loss rate of disasters. Only based on historical loss sequence, the time series prediction method can effectively predict future loss. Therefore, this paper first briefly describes the main means of time series prediction, namely statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. Secondly, the commonly used machine learning algorithms for disaster loss time series prediction, and its application cases and existing problems, were introduced in detail. To address the issue of small sample sizes for loss predication, data augmentation techniques can be used; To address the issue of data non-stationarity, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) can be used to decompose the original sequence into relatively stationary sub-sequences. In addition, exploratory solutions have been proposed, such as ensemble learning strategies for multiple machine learners, and combining machine learning algorithms with optimization algorithms, strong prediction strategies, or attention mechanisms. Finally, a summary solution for conventional disaster damage prediction was proposed.