Examining Grain Production Dynamics in China : Mechanization, Urban Development, and Irrigation Insights

This study examines the dynamic relationships among China’s grain production, total agricultural machinery power, urban construction area, and effective irrigated area from 2004 to 2023, employing VAR, cointegration analysis, VECM, Granger causality tests, and variance decomposition. The findings reveal a significant long-term equilibrium among the variables, with total agricultural machinery power and grain production exhibiting a bidirectional causal relationship. Variance decomposition highlights that grain production variability is initially driven by its own shocks, but over time, the influence of agricultural machinery power becomes increasingly significant. The study underscores the critical role of agricultural mechanization and infrastructure in sustaining grain production and provides valuable insights for policymakers to optimize resource allocation and design effective strategies for agricultural development.