Costs and export potentials of green synthetic fuels produced in the MENA region

The use of fossil fuels is the main cause of greenhouse gas emissions and a major driver of climate change. Although direct electrification can replace fossil fuels in many applications, certain sectors will continue to require high-density energy sources in the future, such as long-distance aviation, maritime shipping, and some high-temperature processes in the industry. For these applications, electricity-based synthetic gases and fuels, produced from renewable energies through Power-to-X (PtX) processes, represent a sustainable solution. This paper presents a novel approach for the large-scale estimation of PtX production costs and potentials, considering regional solar and wind power conditions. At its core is the DLR_ITEMS GlobalFuel framework, which calculates local production costs using temporally and spatially resolved data. The framework uses linear optimization to design cost-optimal systems by dimensioning the components for maximal efficiency. It accommodates various converter and storage technologies, enabling high utilization rates even with fluctuating renewable electricity supply. The methodology supports the analysis of multiple pathways by integrating different technologies and assumptions, including wind power, photovoltaics or concentrated solar power, electrolysis, and synthesis. This analysis provides a spatially detailed overview of future PtX generation potential and its levelized production costs. Additionally, the inclusion of domestic demand for renewable energy (RE) and green fuels enables realistic estimates of the export potentials of individual countries, highlighting production and export hot spots. This work focuses on the cost potentials of Fischer–Tropsch fuel production in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The findings indicate that domestic demand in large territorial countries has a moderate impact on the increase in levelized production costs for export potential. In contrast, small countries often have to fully utilize their limited renewable energy resources for domestic supply of electricity and green fuels. The analysis identifies the most favorable fuel potentials in the MENA region, with cost-optimal ranges between 190 and 220 €/MWh and an estimated annual production potential of 3,400 TWh in 2030. Of this, approximately 3,100 TWh could be available for export markets.