A Comment on: <i>“Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fern

We examine the split‐sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez‐Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross‐fitting and design‐based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.

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Publication Details

Journal
Econometrica
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta22261
Primary Topic
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
Type
article
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article

A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fern

Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li
Econometrica
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
article

A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fern

Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li
article en

Abstract

We examine the split‐sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez‐Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross‐fitting and design‐based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.

EconometricaVol. 93(4)
Harvard University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 82%
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
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