The Influence of Economic, Demographic, Technological, Environmental and Infrastructure Sectors on Indonesian Exports: The Role of Productivity as a Mediator

This research aims to analyze the influence of economic, demographic, technological, environmental, and infrastructure sectors on Indonesia's exports with total factor productivity (TFP) as the mediating variable. A quantitative approach was used with path analysis method, using secondary data from the period 1997–2022 obtained from BPS, World Bank, and IMF. The research results show that exchange rate, technological progress (number of scientific and technical articles), port efficiency (port output), and TFP have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's exports. Meanwhile, labor force participation has no significant effect. Average annual temperature has a negative and significant effect, showing the adverse impact of climate change on natural resource-based export sectors. Bootstrap testing shows that TFP negatively mediates the effect of exchange rate on exports, indicating that exchange rate depreciation can reduce productivity efficiency in the long term. These findings emphasize the importance of balanced exchange rate policy as well as the strategic role of innovation, port infrastructure, and climate adaptation in driving national export performance.