Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation of Hypervelocity Impact-Induced Fragmentation in FACSAT-2 CubeSat Debris

This paper presents a comprehensive Monte Carlo framework for modeling the fragmentation of the FACSAT-2 CubeSat under hypervelocity impact conditions. By integrating the NASA Standard Breakup Model with stochastic simulation techniques, the study captures the inherent randomness of collision events and emphasizes the critical role of ejecta in momentum enhancement. The simulations indicate that including ejecta effects amplifies the angular momentum transfer by a factor of approximately three, leading to a notable broadening and positive shift in the rotational kinetic energy distribution of the satellite. Detailed graphical analyses, including cumulative distribution functions and probability density functions, effectively illustrate the evolving dispersion in rotational parameters. Moreover, the model predicts that each hypervelocity impact may produce around 109 distinct debris fragments, highlighting the acute vulnerability of CubeSat-class satellites in congested low Earth orbits. These findings underscore the urgent need for advanced debris mitigation strategies and design adaptations, such as improved shielding and active attitude control systems, to safeguard the operational integrity of small satellites.