Past, current status, and future trends of the rural healthcare network in the Republic of Kazakhstan

There is a lack of research investigating the rural healthcare network in Kazakhstan following healthcare system reforms. The aim of this study was to assess the density of rural healthcare facilities at the national and regional levels from 2004-2022, examine the healthcare system reforms implemented to enhance rural healthcare, and forecast future trends. For this purpose, official statistics and relevant laws from legislative databases were retrieved and analyzed. Mathematical modeling was employed to project future trends in rural facility density up to 2030. Kazakhstan has taken numerous actions to support rural healthcare, which is evident in various legislative acts. However, despite these efforts, the density of both outpatient and inpatient healthcare facilities decreased during 2004-2022, primarily due to Kazakhstan's growing population. Overall, the density of both outpatient and inpatient healthcare facilities is projected to decline further, with an estimated density of 5.87 per 10,000 people for outpatient facilities and 1.98 per 100,000 people for inpatient facilities by 2030. Projections also suggest that the rural population may increase to 7,991,460 people by 2030. Given these findings, continued efforts are needed to improve the provision of healthcare services to the rural population of Kazakhstan.