Two-Dimensional Flood Modeling of a Piping-Induced Dam Failure Triggered by Seismic Deformation: A Case Study of the Doğantepe Dam

This study presents a scenario-based, two-dimensional flood modeling approach to assess the potential downstream impacts of a piping-induced dam failure triggered by seismic activity. The case study focuses on the Doğantepe Dam in northwestern Türkiye, located near an active branch of the North Anatolian Fault. Critical deformation zones were previously identified through PLAXIS 2D seismic analyses, which served as the physical basis for a dam break scenario. This scenario was modeled using the HEC-RAS 2D platform, incorporating high-resolution topographic data, reservoir capacity, and spatially varying Manning’s roughness coefficients. The simulation results show that the flood wave reaches downstream settlements within the first 30 min, with water depths exceeding 3.0 m in low-lying areas and flow velocities surpassing 6.0 m/s, reaching up to 7.0 m/s in narrow sections. Inundation extents and hydraulic parameters such as water depth and duration were spatially mapped to assess flood hazards. The study demonstrates that integrating physically based seismic deformation data with hydrodynamic modeling provides a realistic and applicable framework for evaluating flood risks and informing emergency response planning.