How Do Invasive Species Influence Biotic and Abiotic Factors Drive Vegetation Success in Salt Marsh Ecosystems?

Vegetation succession is a critical indicator of ecosystem structure and function and is often disrupted by the expansion of invasive species. However, ecosystem-scale studies elucidating invasion-driven succession mechanisms remain limited. This research focused on the Yancheng coastal salt marsh and analyzed the distribution variation of invasive species (Spartina alterniflora) and native species (Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis) from 1987 to 2022 via the Google Earth Engine and random forest method. Logistic/Gaussian models were used to quantify land–sea distribution changes and vegetation succession trajectories. By integrating data on soil salinity, invasion duration, and fractional vegetation cover, generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to identify the main factors influencing vegetation succession and to explore how Spartina alterniflora invasion affects the succession of salt marsh vegetation. The results indicated that the areas of Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis significantly increased by 3787.49 ha and 3452.60 ha in 35 years, respectively, contrasting with Suaeda salsa’s 82.46% decline. The FVC in the area has significantly increased by 42.10%, especially in the coexisted areas of different vegetation communities, indicating intensified interspecific competition. The overall trend of soil salinity was decreasing, with a decrease in soil salinity in native species areas from 0.72% to 0.37%. From the results of GAMs, soil salinity, tidal action, and invasion duration were significant factors influencing the distribution of native species, but salinity was not a significant factor affecting the Spartina alterniflora distribution. The findings revealed that the expansion of Spartina alterniflora changed the soil salinity and interspecific interactions, thereby altering the original plant community structure and establishing a new vegetation succession. This study enhances the understanding of the impacts of invasive species on ecosystems and offers theoretical support for salt marsh restoration.