Estimating and projecting the population living with dementia at the local area scale in Australia

Abstract As Australia’s population ages, the number of people living with dementia will grow considerably. Understanding local changes in the number of people living with dementia will facilitate suitable planning, costing, and service delivery for health and aged care services. To inform this task, this study presents estimates and projections from 2021 to 2036 of Australians living with dementia at the state and territory level, and at the finer regional SA3 level. Estimates and projections were prepared for 3 scenarios: where dementia prevalence rates by age, sex, and SA3 area (1) remain fixed (Constant Prevalence), (2) decrease exponentially by 1% per year (Decreasing Prevalence), or (3) increase exponentially by 1% per year (Increasing Prevalence). Regardless of the dementia prevalence scenario, there is projected to be strong growth of the number of people living with dementia between 2021 and 36 due to large growth in the older population. Even in the best-case, Decreasing Prevalence scenario, the number of persons living with dementia is projected to increase from 388,441 in 2021 to approximately 554,000 by 2036—a 42.8% rise. This increase is regionally heterogeneous, albeit correlated with numerical ageing. In all scenarios, by 2036, many SA3 areas will have fewer than 20 working-age persons for each person living with dementia, presenting challenges for the provision of dementia care. These results highlight the need for urgent local level policy and planning decisions to support dementia prevention, diagnosis, and prepare healthcare systems to support the care and quality of life of persons living with dementia.