The Supportive Effect of the Real Economy on Financial Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Futures Market Data

As an essential component of modern financial markets, financial derivatives often rely on a mature real economy for their development. Therefore, assessing the influence of the real economy on financial derivatives is crucial. This study employs a linear regression model combined with robustness checks to examine the impact of the real economy on the development of financial derivatives in China, using data from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, it incorporates a heterogeneity analysis from temporal and sectoral perspectives.The findings reveal that: (1) The real economy exerts a positive and supportive effect on the development of financial derivatives. (2) The supportive effect was more pronounced before the global financial crisis. (3) The agricultural sector plays a more significant role in promoting the development of financial derivatives compared to the industrial sector.