Pedalling towards inclusion: Accessibility and equity implications for older people in future cycling scenarios for a small-sized mediterranean city

Resilient cities shift from car-centric systems to sustainable transport modes, with cycling playing a pivotal role in rebranding urban mobility and supporting health and wellbeing. For small-sized cities, though, cohesive methods for planning accessibility-enabling and equity-enhancing cycling networks remain underdeveloped. In this context, this study endeavours to assess how diverse future cycling scenarios affect accessibility and equity, focusing on older people. The method followed, explored three scenarios with different cycling network configurations: the do-nothing scenario that preserves existing conditions, the formal planning scenario, stemming from the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP), and the “bicycle-oriented” scenario, a radical one formulated by an advanced street classification method. Accessibility levels were calculated through gravity measures, while equity implications were evaluated using indices like the Concentration Index and Bivariate Local Moran's, with a particular interest in accessibility for older people. The coastal city of Kalamata, Greece, serves as our case study, characterised by a prominent share of older people and a strong car-centric culture. Our results indicate that achieving equitable outcomes is a complex effort. Although, the bicycle-oriented scenario yielded the most critical changes and cycling accessibility benefits areas with high concentration of older people were disproportionately affected raising equity concerns. On the contrary, significantly milder changes, as shown in the formal planning scenario, led to more balanced outcomes, thus manifesting the usefulness of planning, acknowledging distributional issues. While some scenarios enhance accessibility, they may not lead to the most equitable distribution of infrastructure. There is a need for more society-centric integrated planning, attending to the special needs of certain socio-economic groups, as “universal” solutions risk exacerbating transport inequity. The paper offers insights on cycling equity for both academics and practitioners operating in similar urban contexts. • Cycling has emerged, during Covid-19, as a mainstream modal choice that is still facing access challenges having to operate in car-centric landscapes. • Using Kalamata, Greece as our case study example we test three future transport scenarios to evaluate whether cycling can be more accessible and equitable especially for older people. • The do-nothing scenario (S0), the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP)-based scenario (S1) and the “bicycle-oriented” scenario (S2) are proposed and compared. • S2 yielded the most accessibility benefits when it comes to facilitating better bicycling conditions but areas with high concentration of older populations were disproportionately affected raising equity issues. • Milder changes, as demonstrated by S1, brought more balanced results showcasing the importance of planning considering distributional issues and vulnerable populations.