An evaluation of the long-term changes in the shoreline of Lake Eğirdir in relation to climate and anthropogenic factors

This study quantifies shoreline changes in Lake Eğirdir between 1984 and 2024 by examining the direction, distance, and rate of change, along with climatic and anthropogenic influences. Landsat satellite images were used to delineate the lake's shoreline using the Modified Normalised Difference Water Index (MNDWI). Shoreline change rates were then calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), employing metrics such as the End Point Rate (EPR), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM). Results indicated the highest EPR value of 61,06 m/yr at transect 2035, while the highest LRR value was 39,78 m/yr. The NSM analysis revealed a maximum positive value of 2444,6 m, indicating significant recession in specific shoreline areas. The key factors driving these changes include climate change and agricultural irrigation practices. MannKendall trend analysis demonstrated a rising trend in maximum temperatures, although precipitation levels showed no significant variation. The expansion of fruit orchards around Lake Eğirdir has intensified water demand, resulting in a marked decline in water levels. This study highlights the combined impact of climatic shifts and human activities on shoreline dynamics, highlighting the need for sustainable water management strategies to mitigate further environmental degradation.