Palm oil fluctuations and urban vulnerability in pursuit of sustainable industrial cities of the Global South

Introduction This study examines how fluctuations in the palm oil industry affect the social and economic vulnerability of urban communities in the Global South, with a particular focus on Dumai City, Indonesia—a palm oil industrial hub striving to achieve sustainable development. Dumai is a major hub for palm oil downstreaming, which produces various commodities such as cosmetics, edible oil, margarine, butter, soap, shampoo, biodiesel, and detergent. As Riau Province ranks first nationally in oil palm plantation area, it serves as a critical region for analyzing these fluctuations and their socio-economic consequences. Methods This research employs an exploratory qualitative approach to investigate the impact of investment fluctuations in the palm oil industry. Data analysis is conducted using Nvivo 12 Plus software, enabling systematic categorization and interpretation of qualitative data. Results The findings indicate that fluctuations in investment realization—both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic Investment (DI)—significantly impact economic growth, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and employment opportunities in Dumai. The investment climate remains unstable, affecting the city's ability to sustain long-term economic resilience. Discussion and conclusion The study concludes that industrial investment in Dumai has not yet reached its full potential, leading to persistent economic uncertainty and employment challenges. To ensure socio-economic stability and long-term industrial sustainability, government policies and strategic interventions are essential to enhance investment in the palm oil industry. This study contributes to the Dumai City Government by providing insights into policy development for sustainable industrial growth and economic resilience. It underscores Dumai's role as one of the leading palm oil industrial cities in the Global South, highlighting the need for improved governance to navigate market fluctuations effectively.