The Synergistic Evolution and Coordination of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus in Northeast China: An Integrated Multi-Method Assessment

The interconnections among water, energy, and food (WEF) systems are growing increasingly complex, making it essential to understand their evolutionary mechanisms and coordination barriers to enhance regional resilience and sustainability. In this study, we investigated the WEF system in Northeast China by constructing a comprehensive indicator system encompassing resource endowment and utilization efficiency. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the WEF system was quantitatively assessed from 2001 to 2022. An obstacle degree model was employed to identify key constraints, while grey relational analysis was used to evaluate the driving influence of individual indicators. Furthermore, a co-evolution model based on logistic growth and competition–cooperation dynamics was developed to simulate system interactions. The results reveal the following: (1) the regional WEF-CCD increased from 0.627 in 2001 to 0.769 in 2022, reaching the intermediate coordination level, with the CCDs of the food, water, and energy subsystems rising from 0.39 to 0.62, 0.38 to 0.60, and 0.40 to 0.55, respectively, highlighting that the food subsystem had the most stable and significant improvement; (2) Jilin Province attained the highest WEF-CCD, 0.850, in 2022, while that for Heilongjiang remained the lowest, at 0.715, indicating substantial interprovincial disparities; (3) key indicators, such as food self-sufficiency rate, electricity generation, and ecological water use, functioned as both core constraints and major drivers of system performance; (4) co-evolution modeling revealed that the food subsystem exhibited the fastest growth, followed by water and energy (α3 > α1 > α2 > 0), with mutual promotion between water and energy subsystems and inhibitory effects from the food subsystem, ultimately converging toward a stable equilibrium state; and (5) interprovincial co-evolution modeling indicated that Jilin leads in WEF system development, followed by Liaoning and Heilongjiang, with predominantly cooperative interactions among provinces driving convergence toward a stable and coordinated equilibrium despite structural asymmetries. This study proposes a transferable, multi-method analytical framework for evaluating WEF coordination, offering practical insights into bottlenecks, key drivers, and co-evolutionary dynamics for sustainable resource governance.