Field-theory inspired physics-informed graph neural network for reliable traffic flow prediction under urban flooding

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly rainfall-induced urban flooding, pose significant challenges to urban transportation systems, affecting public safety, economic productivity, and overall quality of urban life. Traditional traffic prediction methods, while effective under normal conditions, struggle to maintain reliability during flood events. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, despite showing promise, face critical limitations in handling data scarcity during flooding conditions, generalising to unprecedented scenarios, and providing interpretable predictions for emergency decision-making. This research proposes a novel Physics-Informed Graph Neural Network (PINN-GNN) model for predicting urban traffic flows specifically under rainfall conditions ranging from light precipitation to heavy rainfall events, which can lead to urban flooding impacts. Our approach innovatively integrates complex physical constraints with advanced data-driven learning techniques through three key components: a dynamic graph-based representation of urban transportation systems that captures essential spatial relationships, a hybrid architecture combining GNN with physics-informed neural networks that ensures predictions adhere to fundamental traffic flow principles, and a field effect module that successfully captures long-range dependencies and flood-induced failure propagation patterns. The most significant contribution of our work lies in the model's ability to maintain reliable predictions in data-scarce flood conditions while providing interpretable results. Through comprehensive testing across multiple cities with diverse characteristics, our model demonstrates consistent performance improvements over existing methods under various rainfall conditions and urban scales. The effectiveness of PINN-GNN stems from its unique combination of physical principles with data-driven learning, enabling robust predictions even in unprecedented scenarios where historical data is limited. This novel algorithm offers valuable support for urban planners and emergency responders by providing reliable and interpretable traffic predictions during urban flood events, contributing significantly to the development of more resilient cities and more effective emergency response strategies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Published
2025-07-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111487
Citations
10
Primary Topic
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
10.06

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article

Field-theory inspired physics-informed graph neural network for reliable traffic flow prediction under urban flooding

Pengjun Zhao, Tim Broyd, Qiuchen Lu, Junqing Tang et al.
10 citations
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
10.06
article

Field-theory inspired physics-informed graph neural network for reliable traffic flow prediction under urban flooding

Pengjun Zhao, Tim Broyd, Qiuchen Lu, Junqing Tang, Dabo Guan, Long Chen, Xuhui Lin
article en
10 citations

Abstract

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly rainfall-induced urban flooding, pose significant challenges to urban transportation systems, affecting public safety, economic productivity, and overall quality of urban life. Traditional traffic prediction methods, while effective under normal conditions, struggle to maintain reliability during flood events. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, despite showing promise, face critical limitations in handling data scarcity during flooding conditions, generalising to unprecedented scenarios, and providing interpretable predictions for emergency decision-making. This research proposes a novel Physics-Informed Graph Neural Network (PINN-GNN) model for predicting urban traffic flows specifically under rainfall conditions ranging from light precipitation to heavy rainfall events, which can lead to urban flooding impacts. Our approach innovatively integrates complex physical constraints with advanced data-driven learning techniques through three key components: a dynamic graph-based representation of urban transportation systems that captures essential spatial relationships, a hybrid architecture combining GNN with physics-informed neural networks that ensures predictions adhere to fundamental traffic flow principles, and a field effect module that successfully captures long-range dependencies and flood-induced failure propagation patterns. The most significant contribution of our work lies in the model's ability to maintain reliable predictions in data-scarce flood conditions while providing interpretable results. Through comprehensive testing across multiple cities with diverse characteristics, our model demonstrates consistent performance improvements over existing methods under various rainfall conditions and urban scales. The effectiveness of PINN-GNN stems from its unique combination of physical principles with data-driven learning, enabling robust predictions even in unprecedented scenarios where historical data is limited. This novel algorithm offers valuable support for urban planners and emergency responders by providing reliable and interpretable traffic predictions during urban flood events, contributing significantly to the development of more resilient cities and more effective emergency response strategies.

Reliability Engineering & System SafetyVol. 265
Queen Mary University of London (GB), City University of Hong Kong (HK), Urban Planning & Design Institute of Shenzhen (China) (CN), Peking University Shenzhen Hospital (CN), University College London (GB), Royal Academy of Engineering (GB), Tsinghua University (CN)
Royal Academy of Engineering
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
10.06
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