A variational deep-learning approach to modeling memory T cell dynamics

Mechanistic models of dynamic, interacting cell populations have yielded many insights into the growth and resolution of immune responses. Historically these models have described the behavior of pre-defined cell types based on small numbers of phenotypic markers. The ubiquity of deep phenotyping therefore presents a new challenge; how do we confront tractable and interpretable mathematical models with high-dimensional data? To tackle this problem, we studied the development and persistence of lung tissue-resident memory CD4 and CD8 T cells ([Formula: see text]) in mice infected with influenza virus. We developed an approach in which dynamical model parameters and the population structure are inferred simultaneously. This method uses deep learning and stochastic variational inference and is trained on the single-cell flow-cytometry data directly, rather than on the kinetics of pre-identified clusters. We show that during the resolution phase of the immune response, memory CD4 and CD8 T cells within the lung are phenotypically diverse, with subsets exhibiting highly distinct and time-dependent dynamics. [Formula: see text] heterogeneity is maintained long-term by ongoing differentiation of relatively persistent Bcl-2hi CD4 and CD8 [Formula: see text] subsets which resolve into distinct functional populations. Our approach yields new insights into the dynamics of tissue-localized immune memory, and is a novel basis for interpreting time series of high-dimensional data, broadly applicable to diverse biological systems.